The Broken Science Initiative
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"If fallacious reasoning always led to absurd conclusions, it would be found out at once and corrected. But once an easy, shortcut mode of reasoning has led to a few correct results, almost everybody accepts it; those who try to warn against it are not listened to."
"What the use of P [the significance level] implies, therefore, is that a hypothesis that may be true may be rejected because it has not predicted observable results that have not occurred."
"Perhaps the most important function of the demarcation between science and nonscience is to refuse political and religious authorities the right to pass binding judgments on the truth of certain statements of fact."
ET JaynesProbability Theory: The Logic of Science
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The BSI Manifesto
Modern science is source and repository of man’s objective knowledge. Scientific knowledge is siloed in models. A model maps a fact to a future unrealized fact as a prediction. A fact is a measurement. A measurement is an observation tied to a scale with an expressed error. An observation is a registration of the real world on our senses or sensing equipment.
A model’s validation derives entirely from its predictive power. There are four grades of model ranked by predictive strength and they are conjecture, hypothesis, theory, and law.
Predictive power is evidence of and reason for sciences’ objectivity, the sole source of science’s reliability and the demarcation between science and pseudoscience. Predictive power as determinant of a scientific model’s validity provides the basis for any rational trust of science.
Models are predictions mapping a fact to an unrealized fact where the current fact constitute the premises and the unrealized fact the conclusion of an inductive argument. Induction derives conclusions from premises with probability and not certainty. All scientific knowledge is therefore the fruit of induction validated by predictive power which is a measure of probability.
– Greg Glassman
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