Let’s start with the truth.

Modern Science

Modern science is source and repository of man’s objective knowledge. [MS001] Scientific knowledge is siloed in models. [MS002] A model maps a fact to a future unrealized fact as a prediction. [MS003] A fact is a measurement. [MS004] A measurement is an observation tied to a scale with an expressed error. [MS005] An observation is a registration of the real world on our senses or sensing equipment. [MS006]


A model’s validation derives entirely from its predictive power. [MS007] There are four grades of model ranked by predictive strength and they are conjecture, hypothesis, theory, and law. [MS008]


A conjecture is an incomplete model or analogy to another domain. [MS009] A hypothesis is a model based on all data in its specified domain, with no counter examples, and incorporating a novel prediction yet to be validated by facts. [MS010] A theory is a hypothesis with at least one nontrivial datum. [MS011] A law is a theory that has received validation in all possible ramifications, and to known levels of accuracy. [MS012]


Predictive power is evidence of and reason for sciences’ objectivity, the sole source of science’s reliability and the demarcation between science and pseudoscience. [MS013] Predictive power as determinant of a scientific model’s validity provides the basis for any rational trust of science. [MS014]


Models are predictions mapping a fact to an unrealized fact where the current fact constitute the premises and the unrealized fact the conclusion of an inductive argument. [MS015] Induction derives conclusions from premises with probability and not certainty. [MS016] All scientific knowledge is therefore the fruit of induction validated by predictive power which is a measure of probability. [MS017]


It is important to note that validation comes independent of method. [MS018] Models derived from inspiration or perspiration both rank by predictive power alone. [MS019] It also warrants mentioning that modern science is an extension of logic and therefore must be consistent with the rules of logic, language, and mathematics. [MS020]



MS005 | A measurement is an observation tied to a scale with an expressed error.

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