The Aquittal of carbon dioxide
Summary
Scientist and engineer, Jeffrey Glassman PhD, wrote this paper as an acquittal of CO2 as a cause of climate change. He explains that levels of CO2 in the atmosphere are the result of a solubility pump, whereby CO2 is absorbed by cold ocean water and released later after temperatures warm. Atmospheric CO2 is thus an effect of warming temperatures, not a cause. If it were a cause, then accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere would result in a catastrophic positive feedback loop. This type of event has never happened in spite of the natural occurrence of necessary conditions in the past.
Glassman introduces CO2 as a “benign gas that is now the hyper-volatile fuel of public policy, media hype, and world politics.” This paper re-analyzes the Vostok ice core data from Antarctica, which is one of the main pieces of evidence in favor of the Anthropogenic Global Warming Hypothesis (AGW). The AGW states that climate change is caused by the CO2 emitted by human activities such as driving cars, air conditioning, manufacturing, etc.
The Vostok ice core data shows a correlation between global temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Climatologists assert that the increasing concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere causes the global temperature to rise. This paper aims to refute that hypothesis.
One key piece of evidence is that CO2 is a lagging indicator of temperature rises. This was previously explained away by climatologists, who said that CO2 accumulation made temperature increases worse. However, Glassman notes that climate models which demonstrate this correlation between temperature and CO2 are fitted, which artificially strengthens the correlation between the data sets. Without the fits, Glassman believes it is possible to produce a model that describes the physical cause and effect relationships between temperature and CO2.
One weakness of prevailing theories is that they cannot account for CO2. Glassman's model explains atmospheric CO2 by modeling its solubility in water. An important modification to this model was to compensate for the lag between rises in temperature and increases in CO2 concentration. With a lag of 1073 years, the correlation between the two variables is improved. This is evidence of the likelihood that warming oceans cause CO2 to rise, not the converse. An error analysis showed that the solubility hypothesis fit the Vostok data better than any other reasonable polynomial fit. It is important to note that a polynomial exists that can be guaranteed to fit any data (including measurement errors and transient effects like volcanic eruptions), but it is physically meaningless.
There are three important take-aways from this paper:
A new model of atmospheric CO2 driven by a conveyor belt underneath the ocean's surface absorbs and releases CO2 in a thousand year cycle. The solubility of water to CO2 increases at lower temperatures, meaning cold water absorbs more CO2 than warm water.
Carbon dioxide should no longer drive public policy. Since CO2 is driven by an oceanic solubility pump. Any attempts to regulate global temperature via reducing human CO2 emissions is futile.
The global climate models predicting catastrophe cannot account for the little ice age or interglacial periods of warming. When their models were unable to predict climate change in 2007, they decoupled them from sun and ocean data. Their models are no longer judged by how well they fit earth's climate, but how well they correlate with other models. Furthermore, these models were used to drive public policy before any of their predictions were validated.
Going forward, climate models need to re-integrate solar radiation data and the effect of oceanic CO2 solubility. This must be recognized as a factor that stabilizes the earth's climate. CO2 concentration is a response to proxy temperature in the Vostok ice core data, not a cause. Global temperature is primarily controlled by the solubility pump. Atmospheric greenhouse gasses (such as CO2) are dwarfed by the ocean's capacity to absorb them and are unable to cause a runaway catastrophe by themselves. What CO2 man produces is absorbed by the oceans. Efforts to regulate it by the Kyoto protocol should be scrapped.
Scientist Jeffrey Glassman wrote a paper saying CO2 does not cause climate change. He explains CO2 only goes up after warming, so they can't cause the warming to happen.
Cold ocean water absorbs CO2 from the air. Later when the water warms up, it releases CO2 back into the air. So warming causes CO2 to go up, not the other way around. If CO2 caused warming, then rising temperatures would be unstoppable. But this has never happened before, even though temperatures and CO2 levels have both been higher in the past.
Glassman calls CO2 a harmless gas that is causing unnecessary hype in the media and in politics. His paper looks again at old Antarctic ice core data. Most scientists say this data tells us that human CO2 emissions cause climate change. Most models don't factor in how much CO2 the ocean can absorb. By factoring this in, his model of the ice core data shows that CO2 goes up a thousand years after temperatures go up.
Key points:
Glassman's model explains CO2 using ocean absorption. He added a delay to match the data better. This supports the idea that ocean warming causes CO2 to go up later, not the other way around. His model fits the data better than previous models.
CO2 follows temperature, it does not drive it. Trying to limit CO2 emissions is a waste of time..
Climate models need to factor in the ocean's absorption of CO2. This stabilizes the global climate. Oceans can absorb whatever extra CO2 comes from human activities.
CO2 is not causing a climate crisis. Policies to cut CO2 emissions should stop. And any realistic climate model needs to model the effects of the ocean.
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Scientist Jeffrey Glassman wrote this paper to show that CO2 is not causing climate change. He explains that CO2 levels in the air are driven by a "solubility pump." Cold ocean water absorbs CO2 from the air. Later when the water warms, it releases the CO2 back into the air. Since CO2 levels follow warming, they can't cause it.
If CO2 caused warming, it would cause even more warming and trigger an unstoppable feedback loop. This has never happened before, even when conditions were right in the past.
Glassman calls CO2 a harmless gas that is driving hysteria in the media and politics. This paper looks again at ice core data from Antarctica. That data is a main proof for the idea that human CO2 causes climate change.
The ice core data shows that CO2 levels and temperatures rise together over time. Therefore, most scientists say rising CO2 causes the temperature rise. Glassman says that's incorrect. His model takes into account the ocean's ability to absorb CO2. Water absorbs more CO2 when it's cold, so rising ocean temperatures will cause a release of CO2 into the atmosphere. This is not a cause of climate change, but an effect. This effect happens a thousand years after the temperature increases.
Key points:
CO2 lags temperature changes in the data. Instead of explaining this, scientists smoothed over their data to better fit their own hypothesis. Without the smoothing, you can make models that show physical causes better.
Glassman's model explains CO2 using its solubility in water. When he factored in the lag, it matched the data even better. This supports the idea that ocean warming causes CO2 to increase, not the reverse. His solubility model fits the data better than other models.
CO2 follows temperature, it doesn't drive it. Attempts to limit CO2, like the Kyoto protocol, won't work.
Climate models need to include oceanic CO2 absorption. This factor stabilizes the climate.
CO2 isn't causing a climate crisis, so policies to cut CO2 emissions should stop. Future climate models can no longer ignore the effects of the ocean. And until a climate model is proven, it should not be used to stoke fear and affect politics.
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